Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Drowning in Keynesian fallacies

Whenever a Keynesian, be it Paul Krugman or even the original Keynesian, try to "refute" Say's Law, they generally create a caricature or straw man, and then refute that instead of dealing with Say's basic point. And Krugman does it again in a recent blog post, this time taking on Grover Norquist.

Krugman first takes a quote from Norquist:
The idea that if you take a dollar out of the economy and then — from somebody who earned it, either through debt, or through taxes — and give it to somebody who’s politically connected, that there are more dollars around, that if you stand on one side of the lake and put a bucket into the lake, and walk around to the other side in front of the TV cameras, pour the bucket back into the lake and announce you’re stimulating the lake to great depths. We just wasted $800 billion on stimulus spending that added to debt, that killed jobs.
Krugman then writes, "OK, this is just Say’s Law." As one who has written much on Say's Law, I ask, "It is?"

In dealing with what Krugman insists is a "fallacy," first we have to remind people that Krugman actually believes that printing money CREATES real wealth, or at least it can lead to the creation of real wealth. When criticized, Krugman usually turns to the alleged "baby-sitting co-op" that "solved" its problems by printing more tickets. (You see, the "co-op" is supposed to be a perfect example of an entire economy with all of its complexities.)

Second, Keynes never "discredited" Say's Law. Instead, Keynes created a caricature and refuted that instead, something Henry Hazlitt notes in his book, The Failure of the New Economics, which thoroughly refutes Keynes' General Theory. Furthermore, in denying Say's Law, Krugman is saying in effect that factors of production for purposes of economic analysis can be treated as homogeneous.

Thus, all it takes to get the factors employed is just a monetary or spending transmission, be it via government spending (which is what is "best" in a "liquidity trap"), or by having monetary authorities drive down interest rates. Under this interpretation, inflation does not have a distorting effect upon the economy but, instead, actually stimulates economic activity and creating new wealth.

Thus, what one produces is irrelevant as long as a government can print money. There is a problem, however, and that is that if all it takes is the "courage" to print money (and most governments ALWAYS have the courage to try to produce something from nothing), then Zimbabwe should be the wealthiest nation on the planet.

Krugman would argue that the U.S. Dollar is different, but if real assets mean nothing, or if all assets for purposes of economic analysis considered to be homogeneous, then it would not matter what was produced in the country represented by a particular currency. And as for Say's Law and the Norquist quote, I would argue that Krugman's next quote does not negate the truth of what Norquist is saying, but rather exposes Krugman's fundamental ignorance of simple opportunity cost:
OK, this is just Say’s Law. We don’t know whether Norquist is honest enough with himself to realize that exactly the same logic applies to any spending, that according to his story anyone who borrows to spend, including companies making investments, is just displacing someone else’s spending.
In other words, everything is reduced to just "spending," when, in fact, investment in a free market is profitable when entrepreneurs are able to move resources from lower-valued uses to higher-valued uses as ultimately determined by consumers.

In Wonderland, no such thing happens, as one "investment" is as good as another, since all that matters is spending. Thus, the Obama administration can throw hundreds of billions of dollars at solar energy, windmills, and ethanol and claim that it is "investing in America's future." Indeed, it is diverting resources from higher-valued uses to lower-valued uses and is destroying the economic future of this nation. Furthermore, we are finding that many of the companies receiving these massive subsidies are firms that have contributed money to the Obama campaign, which to me is utter corruption. Contribute to Obama, and have the president then loot taxpayers to throw good money after bad.

The key to understanding what Krugman is saying is to remember that he does not believe resources can be moved from lower-valued to higher-valued uses, at least economically speaking. It is all spending all of the time.

205 comments:

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Zachriel said...

Which returns us to the beginning of the discussion.

Major_Freedom: Supply and demand are two different units you idiot.

Major_Freedom: What utter garbage.

Major_Freedom: Supply cannot exceed demand. Demand cannot exceed supply. Demand cannot even be equal to supply. One unit can't exceed the other unit because they are different, incommensurable units.

jason h: Say's Law still stands Demand cannot exceed Supply.

Perhaps you should take that up with Major_Freedom. Anyway ...

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"Demand is the want or desire to possess a good or service with the necessary goods, services, or financial instruments necessary to make a legal transaction for those goods or services."
http://economics.about.com/cs/economicsglossary/g/demand.htm
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More particularly, demand is expressed as the "quantity of a good or service that buyers are willing and able to buy at all possible prices during a period of time," i.e. the demand curve. When the demand curve shifts, that means demand has shifted.
http://www.econedlink.org/economic-resources/glossary.php?alpha=d
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"Demand:
1. The act of offering to buy a product.
2. The quantity offered to buy.
3. The quantities offered to buy at various prices; the demand curve."
— Deardorffs' Glossary of International Economics
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"One of the most important building blocks of economic analysis is the concept of demand. When economists refer to demand, they usually have in mind not just a single quantity demanded, but a demand curve, which traces the quantity of a good or service that is demanded at successively different prices."
— The Concise Encyclopedia of Economics
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Any of these definitions can be used consistently. But to declare *by definition* that demand can't be compared to supply, just makes any discussion exceedingly difficult.

Zachriel said...

"The most famous law in economics, and the one economists are most sure of, is the law of demand. On this law is built almost the whole edifice of economics. The law of demand states that when the price of a good rises, the amount demanded falls, and when the price falls, the amount demanded rises." — The Concise Encyclopedia of Economics

Zachriel (quoting): "Relative value rises in direct ratio to the demand, and inverse ratio to the supply."

Major_Freedom: False.

Here, Major_Freedom claims to be defending Jean-Baptiste Say, but rejects one of the foundations of his argument, as well as the foundation of economics generally.

Zachriel said...

Say's Law applies fairly well to barter economies, but not to money-based economies. Say believed there was no fundamental difference between the two, "Money performs no more than the role of a conduit in this double exchange. When the exchanges have been completed, it will be found that one has paid for products with products."

Here is the flaw in Say's argument (emphasis added):

"It is worthwhile to remark that a product is no sooner created than it, from that instant, affords a market for other products to the full extent of its own value. When the producer has put the finishing hand to his product, he is most anxious to sell it immediately, lest its value should diminish in his hands. Nor is he less anxious to dispose of the money he may get for it; for the value of money is also perishable. But the only way of getting rid of money is in the purchase of some product or other."

Though the idea that money is perishable is generally true, it is not true in a deflationary economy. Indeed, quite the contrary. Money gains value, and it is always better to postpone purchases in a deflating economy. And when there is a general deflation, then everyone will reach the same conclusion at the same time. This causes even more deflation as more money is effectively hoarded. This leaves a general glut in inventories. The economic engine stands idle. Money changes the equation.

Sam said...

"Though the idea that money is perishable is generally true, it is not true in a deflationary economy. Indeed, quite the contrary. Money gains value, and it is always better to postpone purchases in a deflating economy. And when there is a general deflation, then everyone will reach the same conclusion at the same time. This causes even more deflation as more money is effectively hoarded. This leaves a general glut in inventories. The economic engine stands idle. Money changes the equation."

LOL. I guess that is why Best Buy went out of business. And the reason no one ever buys LCD TV's, computers, or tablets.

Zachriel said...

Sam: I guess that is why Best Buy went out of business.

As Say points out, the producer "is most anxious to sell it immediately, lest its value should diminish in his hands." It's the finished product that diminishes in value. That's exactly his point.

Nor is it deflation, which is a decrease in the general price level of goods and services.

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