Wednesday, April 14, 2010

Is the Stock Market Telling the Truth?

In a recent post on his blog, "Paging Larry Kudlow," Paul Krugman quotes from something Larry Kudlow wrote in 2007:
I have long believed that stock markets are the best barometer of the health, wealth and security of a nation. And today’s stock market message is an unmistakable vote of confidence for the president.
Krugman then posts the following graph showing the recent trends of the Dow:

However, it seems to me that Krugman is working against himself, for if the Dow in 2007 was not predicting the meltdown of 2008, then why should we believe it today as a predictor of the future, given President Barack Obama's policies? Krugman cannot have it both ways, but, alas, that is what he wants.

Now, Kudlow hardly is credible, in my view, for he publicly disagreed with Peter Schiff a few years ago, and he DID tell the Fed in about 2003 to "pour it on," meaning that it should print money like mad, which it did. We saw the results.


charliemax said...

The stock market is being manipulated and is at least 25% overvalued. The gold and silver markets are leveraged far beyond physical holdings. Silver at least 100 to 1. The Treasury and Fed. have created a currency bubble so full, when it pops the inflation will be huge and quick. We might as well be strapped to the big wheel facing the blind-folded knife thrower

Unknown said...

I never pay attention to the stock market numbers. I might if I had money in stocks, but I dont think it really says anything worthwhile about the economy as a whole.

Unknown said...

Kudlow is a supply sider to the core; his statement is indicative of their devout adherence to EMH. This reminds me of how Ben Stein always saying "don't invest in stocks. leave it to the "experts and invest in index funds." Us Austrians know that the stock market, in a period of large monetary expansion, is one of the worst indicators of economic health. Krugeman uses these Monetarist cranks to blame "free-market" economics, i.e. Chicago economists, when his Keynesian policies fail, while giving Keynesianism all the credit for any artificial recovery or growth.

Absolutely Nobama said...

I think this is actually a bad sign. It means companies have become leaner and meaner without all of those pesky employees getting in the way.

Do I have it right, Professor Anderson ?